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TODAY'S CLIMATE AND ENERGY HEADLINES
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The energy price cap for UK households will rise to £3,549 a year on 1 October, the Guardian reports. The energy regulator Ofgem approved the £1,578 increase on the current price cap of £1,971 for the average dual-fuel tariff – a rise of 80%, the paper explains. It continues: “Ofgem said it will not give projections for the next price cap change in January because the market remains “too volatile”, but warned that prices “could get significantly worse through 2023”. The new cap will affect 24m households – about 85% of the population.” Jonathan Brearley, the chief executive of Ofgem, said that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and reduction of gas supplies to Europe had driven the rise in wholesale gas prices, the paper reports. He said that had left Ofgem “no choice” but to reflect cost increases in the price cap, adding: “The government support package is delivering help right now but it’s clear the new prime minister will need to act further to tackle the impact of the price rises that are coming in October and next year. Sky News says the rise “follows a 54% increase in April”. BBC News, Financial Times, Politico and BusinessGreen all have the story.
In response, Scotland’s first minister Nicola Sturgeon said the energy price cap rise is “simply unaffordable for millions” and must be cancelled, reports the Press Association. She tweeted: “This rise must be cancelled, with the UK gov and energy companies then agreeing a package to fund the cost of a freeze over a longer period, coupled with fundamental reform of the energy market.” Labour has called for an emergency budget to tackle the cost of living crisis, reports the Guardian. The shadow chancellor, Rachel Reeves, said: “The only people resisting measures to help people are the government. We wanted parliament to be recalled ahead of the [Ofgem] announcement but that did not happen…We want an emergency budget. We want the government to say what they are going to do.“ Will Quince, an education minister, told LBC radio yesterday that there was “no question” there will be further support on top of what was announced in May, reports the Press Association. He added: “Now, we will have to wait a couple of weeks for a new prime minister to set out their agenda alongside a new chancellor, but both leadership contenders have been clear there will be a fiscal event and more help will be coming.” The thinktank the Institute for Fiscal Studies has said that the next prime minister will most likely be unable to avoid introducing a fresh package of support, reports the Press Association. The Financial Times reports that Adam Bell, the former head of energy strategy at the business department, says the government should move on to a “war footing” to tackle the energy crisis. The Press Association reports that energy consultancy Auxilion has warned that households could see their fuel bills cost more than their monthly mortgage payments next year, and also that mental health emergency, charities and thinktanks have warned of the risk of a “full-blown economic crisis”. At the same time, the Financial Times reports that Harbour Energy – the biggest oil and gas producer in UK waters – yesterday unveiled a more than 10-fold increase in first-half pre-tax profit to $1.49bn.
Elsewhere, the Daily Mail reports on an assessment of Labour’s plan to freeze the energy cap at April levels by Full Fact, an independent fact checking organisation. The paper says that Full Fact “identified an £8bn black hole” in Labour’s calculations as the party “appeared to have based its calculations on funding only half the cost of freezing bills for a year”. [Analysis by Carbon Brief last week noted that Labour’s plan was for a six-month freeze.]
In a story that makes the frontpage of the Daily Mail, Liz Truss – the leading candidate to be the UK’s next prime minister – has pledged to restart fracking in order to make the UK an ‘energy-secure dynamo. Writing for the paper, Truss says “energy security starts at home, which is why we must radically boost domestic supplies”. She says she will “end the effective ban on extracting our huge reserves of shale gas by fracking but be led by science, setting out a plan to ensure communities benefit”. [Under the industry’s best-case scenario, fracking would not produce enough gas to meet even 1% of UK demand for more than three years. After an immediate start, it would be the late 2020s before more than 5% of UK demand could be met by domestically produced shale gas.] Truss adds that “fracking will take place only in areas with a clear public consensus behind it”. [Polling has consistently shown strong public opposition to fracking.] Truss writes that she will also “seek to unleash more energy by maximising our North Sea oil and gas production. We will not be swayed by short-sighted calls to hit these firms with a windfall tax, as that risks deterring investors and slowing our pursuit of energy independence”. [North Sea gas production is up 26% this year, yet gas prices in the UK have still risen significantly.] Emphasising the “need to embrace diverse sources of energy”, Truss writes that she “will champion the UK’s world-leading technologies like nuclear alongside renewables such as wind and tidal”. She adds: “We have huge potential to harness, whether it is through the small modular reactors made by Rolls-Royce in Derby or our nation having the largest offshore wind capacity in Europe.” In an editorial, the Daily Mail says it “welcomes her pledge to tap the North Sea’s vast oil and gas reserves, massively ramp up nuclear power and begin fracking for cheap shale gas. After all, in the US where fracking is king energy bills are a fraction the size of ours.” The Press Association covers the story.
At the penultimate hustings for the Conservative leadership last night, Truss and former chancellor Rishi Sunak “clash[ed] on energy costs”, reports the Guardian. The paper says: “Liz Truss has doubled down on her reluctance to ‘bung more money’ at those who will struggle to afford spiralling energy costs this winter while Rishi Sunak said millions may be forced into destitution without extra support.” Truss also told reporters that she would “look at business energy costs because it is one of the issues holding back business”, reports Reuters. The Times reports that “Truss held talks with Kwasi Kwarteng, the business secretary and her prospective chancellor, and other senior members of her team about her plans [on energy costs]. The meeting was at Chevening, the foreign secretary’s grace-and-favour residence”.
Finally, the Independent reports that “planning application refusals for solar farms are higher than ever, despite the energy price crisis and the climate crisis”. It continues: “Planning permission for 23 solar farms has been refused across England, Wales and Scotland between January 2021 and July 2022, which could have produced enough renewable energy to power an estimated 147,000 homes annually, according to new analysis. Just four projects were refused planning permission during 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020 combined.” The Guardian says “there are fears such refusals could increase further as the Tory leadership contenders, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak, have made disparaging comments about solar farms”. (Yesterday, Carbon Brief published a factcheck responding to criticisms from Truss and Sunak of ground-mounted solar.)
Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelenskiy said the world narrowly avoided a radiation disaster yesterday as the last regular line supplying electricity to Ukraine’s Russian-held Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant was restored hours after being cut, reports Reuters. The UN International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said that the last regular line is working again after being cut earlier yesterday, says another Reuters article, which describe the events as “an outage that underlined the potential peril posed by nearby fighting”. The newswire continues: “Ukrainian state nuclear company Energoatom said earlier that fires broke out in the ash pits of a coal power station near the Zaporizhzhia reactor complex, Europe’s largest such facility, disrupting lines linking the plant to Ukraine’s power grid.” Energoatom said the temporary interruption was the first time the plant had ever been disconnected from the grid in its 40-year history, reports the Financial Times, but it added that there were “no concerns” over a full-scale accident after back-up systems kicked in. In a video address yesterday, Zelenskyy said: “The world must understand what a threat this is: if the diesel generators did not turn on, if the automation and our station staff did not work after the blackout, then we would already be forced to overcome the consequences of the radiation accident.“ The Guardian explains: “If all external connections go down, [the plant] must rely on diesel-fuelled generators for power. If they break down, engineers only have 90 minutes to stave off dangerous overheating.” In an “exclusive” interview by France24 , Rafael Mariano Grossi – director general of the IAEA – said he hoped a UN visit to inspect the plant would take place within “days”. He added that “we are very, very close” to reaching agreement on the visit, while cautioning that it was “extremely complex”. Politico also has the story and Reuters has a “key facts” piece on the Zaporizhzhia plant and an explainer on yesterday’s events.
The European Union will urge the world’s biggest economies to improve their targets to fight climate change ahead of this year’s UN climate summit and warn that states’ current efforts fall short, according to a draft document seen by Reuters. The newswire continues: “Despite a raft of new emissions-cutting commitments countries announced at last year’s COP26 climate summit, ‘global climate action remains insufficient’, the EU said in a draft of its negotiations mandate for the COP27 summit in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt, in November.” The draft, which “faces weeks of negotiations and could change before EU countries approve it in October”, said polluters must revise their targets if the world is meet the 1.5C limit, the newswire explains. The draft reads: “[The EU] calls upon all Parties to come forward with ambitious targets and policies and urges in particular major economies that have not yet done so to revisit or strengthen the targets.”
Meanwhile, Politico reports that “African leaders are heading for the Netherlands next month seeking delivery on promised cash to help them cope with the destructive forces of climate change, but their European counterparts largely plan to skip the meeting”. It adds: “Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte – whose partly below-sea-level country prides itself on engineering that secures its existence and also hosts the Global Centre on Adaptation (GCA) where the meeting will take place – is the only European leader planning to attend in person.”
New research suggests that “dangerous heat” in coming decades will likely hit much of the world at least three times more often as climate change worsens, reports the Associated Press. In the mid-latitudes, extreme heat and humidity that are seen occasionally at the moment could “happen 20 to 50 times a year by mid-century”, the outlet says, adding: “By 2100, that brutal heat index may linger for most of the summer for places like the US south-east.” The situation is “far worse” for the tropics, the outlets says: “The study said a heat index considered ‘extremely dangerous’… – now something that rarely happens – will likely strike a tropical belt that includes India one to four weeks a year by century’s end.” Lead author Lucas Zeppetello tells the outlet: “So that’s kind of the scary thing about this…That’s something where potentially billions of people are going to be exposed to extremely dangerous levels of heat very regularly. So something that’s gone from virtually never happening before will go to something that is happening every year.” The Guardian, MailOnline, CNN, Daily Telegraph and New Scientist also cover the study, while the Guardian has an additional article looking at the implications for Australia.
Meanwhile, Reuters reports that the hot, dry summer in France has brought an early harvest for champagne grape pickers. The president of one president of one champagne winery tells the newswire that “it’s quite clear that global warming is having an effect now”. The Independent also has the story.
In other extreme weather news, the Independent reports that “Pakistan has urged international partners to mobilise urgent assistance as it is unable to cope with massive floods triggered by torrential rain last month, killing 903 people so far”. And Reuters reports that the death toll from flooding in Afghanistan this month has killed more than 180 people.
The UK government will announce its financial commitment for a new nuclear plant next week, reports Bloomberg, citing “three people familiar with the plans”. The outlet continues: “The decision, which will come as soon as Tuesday, is aimed at helping the government and [EDF] seek private funding for the 3.2-gigawatt Sizewell C plant on the country’s east coast. EDF will hold a board meeting early next week to sign-off on the plan after it was given the go-ahead by Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Chancellor Nadhim Zahawi, according to one of the people. A spokesperson for EDF declined to comment.” It adds: “A final investment decision, including whether the UK will take a 20% stake in the project, will be made early next year, the people said. The plant, which will also be part-owned by EDF, had an estimated price-tag of £20bn at the start of the year, since when raw material costs have surged.”
A new study says that up to 50% of the properties that were flooded in Harris County, Texas, during Hurricane Harvey might have escaped that fate in a world without climate change, reports the New York Times. The research also found that “low-income Latino neighbourhoods in the county, which is the largest in the Houston metropolitan area, experienced disproportionately higher effects of the flooding attributed to climate change”, the paper explains. Specifically, of those properties flooded because of climate change, “48% were associated with Hispanic groups…about 33% were associated with white residents, 13% with Black residents and 7% with other racial or ethnic groups”, reports the Independent. Yale Environment 360 quotes lead author Kevin Smiley, who said: “Part of the reason why low-income neighbourhoods flooded has to do with the historical development of Houston along its waterways and surrounding petrochemical corridor…There’s a clear climate and environmental justice story as to where these neighbourhoods are located.”
Meanwhile, the Independent reports that, according to the federal government, “the entire New York City area is facing drought conditions, as dry conditions this summer have lingered for months”.
German chancellor Olaf Scholz has confirmed that he intends to move away from the use of fossil fuels stating that “we know that we cannot continue to be dependent on fossil energy imports from other countries,” said the Social Democrat politician on Thursday when he visited a Siemens Gamesa production facility for wind turbines in Cuxhaven, reports Süddeutsche Zeitung. “Especially when you can’t be sure that they always stick to their contracts and agreements,” he is quoted as referring to Russia. German public radio and television Norddeutscher Rundfunk reports that the federal government “has set itself the goal of massively expanding renewables”, a share of which should be at least 80% by 2030. “I’m fully convinced – only when we do not let ourselves be daunted when the government in its first year led by me can pass all the laws needed to reach the necessary speed for the expansion of renewable energy – then we’ll be successful,” said Scholz at the plant in Cuxhaven, reports Reuters.
Meanwhile, 54% of German citizens are currently saving energy to prepare for a possible energy shortage in the coming months, according to the survey by Civey for Business Insider. According to the federal economy minister Robert Habeck, Germany should save a fifth of gas by March at least, compared to the average consumption of the past five years, reports Die Zeit. The outlet explains that the new regulations planned by the federal government include suspending the contractual clause in leases about a certain temperature for six months, prohibiting the heating of the private indoor and outdoor pools with gas or electricity from the grid, setting a maximum temperature of 19C for workspaces in public buildings, prohibiting the illuminating of advertising systems from 10 pm to 6 am. And Tagesschau adds that “the lighting of buildings and monuments for purely aesthetic or representative reasons will be switched off”. Robert Habeck said he’ll look into ways of preventing some importers from benefiting from a new levy on consumers to compensate for surging gas prices if they don’t genuinely need the assistance, reports Bloomberg. It adds that 12 companies initially filed applications for about €34bn euros in assistance, according to Trading Hub Europe, Germany’s gas market manager.
In other news, BBC News reports on new analysis suggesting that “Russia is burning off large amounts of natural gas”. The outlet says: “Experts say the gas would previously have been exported to Germany. They say the plant near the border with Finland, is burning an estimated $10m (£8.4m) worth of gas every day.” One expert tells the outlet that the flaring – which is coming from a new liquified natural gas (LNG) plant at Portovaya, north-west of St Petersburg – is not accidental and is more likely a deliberate decision made for operational reasons. They said: “Operators often are very hesitant to actually shut down facilities for fear that they may be technically difficult or costly to start up again, and it’s probably the case here.” The Guardian also has the story.
Politico reports that the Canadian government confirmed this week that it will allow for the maintenance of five turbines used by Russia’s Nord Stream 1 pipeline as scheduled. The outlet explains: “Ottawa had granted an exception to sanctions on Russia’s oil and gas industry in July, allowing the return of a first turbine for the gas pipeline to Germany. However Russian gas supplier Gazprom refused to accept the turbine, blaming technical issues and missing documents. Despite Gazprom’s rejection, the Canadian foreign minister said the permit as it stands allows for the maintenance of the five other turbines as scheduled and their return to Germany.”
Elsewhere in Europe, Bloomberg reports that “the cost of French power jumped to a fresh record as its nuclear fleet faces further outages going into what’s set to be a very expensive winter”. It adds: “Futures soared 15% to 900 euros per megawatt-hour – more than 10 times the price at this time last year.” Bloomberg also reports that “Europe’s politicians have already earmarked about 280bn euros ($279bn) to ease the pain of surging energy prices for businesses and consumers, but the aid risks being dwarfed by the scale of the crisis”. Reuters reports that Spanish lawmakers ratified the minority government’s energy-saving decree yesterday, but “whether the unpopular measure will help Spain meet its European commitment to cut gas usage by 7% remains to be seen”. The newswire also reports that “Italy will update its gas emergency plan next week, a government source said…adding Rome will not resort to rationing since it has cut its reliance on Russian imports”. Reuters also has an analysis piece on how “winter protests loom as energy poverty sweeps Europe”.
The Global Times, a Chinese state-run newspaper, writes that the country will “spare no effort to ease the power supply tightness” in southwest China’s Sichuan province and Chongqing municipality. It will use measures such as “strengthening unified power dispatching and ensuring the storage and supply of thermal coal and gas”, says the newspaper citing an official from the National Energy Administration (NEA), the country’s top energy regulator. According to an interview with the state-run industry newspaper China Energy News, the “unidentified” official also stressed that the NEA will “go all out to ensure the supply of energy and power to meet demand peaks in the summer and winter, while resolutely preventing sudden blackouts”, the Global Times article notes.
Meanwhile, a Caixin article, titled “Four things to know about China’s power crunch”, focuses on the “causes” of Sichuan’s power shortage, the “government’s response”, the “likely long-term solutions”, as well as the “impact on China’s economic growth”. The Shanghai-based outlet notes that the NEA “acknowledged supply challenges caused by high temperatures and a lack of hydroelectricity generation”, adding that the agency “pledged to ensure a nationwide balance of supply and demand by 2025 by accelerating hydro and nuclear power projects while pushing for more transmission lines across provinces and expanding renewable capacity, such as wind and solar, in the next few years”. Caixin adds that Citic Securities analysts estimate the power crunch will “cut 1 percentage point from China’s industrial added-value growth in August and shave about 0.13 of a percentage point off GDP growth in the third quarter”. Reuters has an explainer on the Sichuan “power crunch”.
Separately, BBC News has a news feature about residents in China’s southwestern provinces who are taking “creative measures to deal with a record heat wave that has seen temperatures exceed 40C (104F)”. Some companies “reportedly used large ice blocks to help cool their offices down”, the article says. It adds that “cave hotpot” restaurants are often frequented during the summer months, as the temperature is cooler underground – but have now become a mainstay”, adding that others are “seeking shelter in underground tunnels, laying out mats or hanging hammocks from beams”. The South China Morning Post carries an article, titled: “Alibaba, Microsoft join Tencent-led alliance as WeChat operator aims to tackle climate crisis through sharing of patents.”
Separately, Caixin reports that China’s “power crisis” is “affecting electric-car owners as automakers including Tesla and Nio suspend some charging facilities”. Caixin has also published an opinion piece by Gao Ruidong, managing director and chief macroeconomist at Everbright Securities, titled: “Why China’s regional power crunch won’t become a national problem.” He says: “In some other provinces, rationing has been less intense and less lengthy.” He adds: “Hydropower only accounted for 16.1% of the country’s power generation last year. Thus, diminished hydropower in several provinces won’t threaten the national power supply…government policies will ensure the supply of coal as well as electricity.”
Elsewhere, Jiangsu-based xuby.net reports that, according to the forecast by National Meteorological Center of China Meteorological Administration, in the next three days, high temperature weather in the Sichuan basin, Jiangnan and other areas will “continue”. It adds that affected by the “rainfall process”, from 29 August onwards, the Sichuan basin will be “relieved from high temperature weather; from 31 onwards, high temperature in southern China will recede, and the high temperature process will be basically over”.
“Britain’s culture wars have reached such epically absurd proportions that even the sun is now the enemy,” writes the Daily Telegraph’s chief city commentator Ben Marlow. He continues: “Rishi Sunak is committed to ‘making sure our fields are used for food production and not solar panels’, while Liz Truss ‘wants to see farmers producing food…not filling fields with paraphernalia like solar farms’. The word ‘paraphernalia’ is particularly telling, as if somehow solar energy serves little purpose, other than to prevent heroic farmers from growing crops and keeping livestock. It won’t be long before someone in Government declares that evil solar panels are essentially threatening the country with famine and destitution.” Yet, with solar farms taking up just 0.1% of the UK’s land, it shows that “facts that are so often rendered superfluous when it comes to rubbishing green energy”, Marlow says. Meanwhile, he continues, “the Tories’ obsession with fracking as the magic solution to Britain’s energy crisis knows no bounds, though it is worth noting that both candidates have said they would support it ‘if local communities support it’”. This is “an important caveat”, Marlow says, “since the reason why fracking never got off the ground the first time around is because of widespread nimbyism and opposition from local councils, so why is the situation likely to be any different this time around? The answer of course is that it’s not. It is little more than a sideshow and another example of this Government’s obsession with culture war signalling”. Quoting Carbon Brief analysis, Marlow also criticises Truss for disappearing down a “rabbit hole” by claiming that green levies “are largely to blame for soaring household energy costs, as opposed to the glaringly obvious culprit – spiralling gas prices”. He concludes that the Conservative party is “obsessing about confected culture wars” at a “crucial moment for them to rediscover their soul and defend the renewable revolution against reactionary forces”. (See Carbon Brief’s factcheck for more on the recent criticisms of solar energy in the UK.)
Elsewhere, writing in the Guardian, Carbon Brief’s deputy editor Simon Evans pushes back on recent rightwing commentary that “net-zero” is to blame for the gas price crisis. The i newspaper‘s chief political commentator Paul Waugh quotes Simon’s analysis in his piece looking at the options available to Truss and Sunak on the energy market. Ed Birkett – a research fellow at the thinktank Policy Exchange’s energy and environment unit – writes for CityAM that “giving up on net-zero could cost the Tories an election”. The Guardian’s environment editor Damian Carrington asks “how much longer can we tolerate this price-gouging racket of an energy sector?”. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard – world economy editor of the Daily Telegraph – writes that “Putin has already done his worst – Britain will manage this winter crisis”. Finally, Financial Times business columnist Helen Thomas warns that “what we don’t have is time”, adding: “In the wasted weeks of political hot air, there has been little progress on how to keep homes warm this winter.”
A “preoccupation with personal carbon footprints…is leading the climate conversation in strange and, in some cases, disturbing directions”, writes Simon Mundy – the Financial Times Moral Money editor – in the paper’s magazine. He highlights a BBC debate last month between UK prime ministerial contenders Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak. The host “spurned the opportunity to grill them on their proposals to deal with the climate crisis”, says Munday, instead asking them: “What three things should people change in their lives to help tackle climate change faster?” Mundy quotes US climate scientist Michael E Mann, who accuses corporate messaging of helping to drive “a fixation on voluntary action”, undermining the push for tough new regulations and state policies, from carbon pricing to tighter restrictions on industrial emissions, that could make a real difference. This fixation means “we’re training our kids to focus on tackling climate change primarily through changes to personal consumption habits, the impact of which, they know instinctively, will fall massively short of what is needed”, Mundy says. In business, too, “we’ve seen a focus on voluntary climate initiatives through industry alliances and the rise of environmental, social and governance (ESG) investing”, he continues: “Its proponents point out, with justification, that business is filling a vacuum left by governments and regulators that have been woefully slow to act. But critics claim companies are using these voluntary initiatives to reduce the pressure for ambitious government action that might threaten near-term profits.” Mundy concludes: “There’s nothing inherently wrong with voluntary attempts to reduce emissions. But it would be grim if this agenda distracted from progress towards the serious policy measures that are the real key to tackling this crisis.”
By 2100, many people living in the tropics will experience “dangerous” levels of heat “during most days of each typical year” without aggressive emissions cuts, according to a new study. Using projections of probable future temperatures and populations, researchers look at how often the Heat Index – which takes into account temperature and relative humidity – may exceed “dangerous” levels around the world by the end of the century. They find that the tropics and subtropics – which are likely to be home to more than 5 billion people by the end of the century – will exceed that limit on “most” days of the year. They also find that locations in the mid-latitudes, which typically do not see deadly heatwaves, will do so annually by 2100.
A new study finds that the 2020 ozone hole above the Antarctic persisted for an unusually long time due in part to the Australian wildfires that year. Researchers use satellite and ground-based measurements to determine “beyond reasonable doubt” that the wildfires “caused the largest lower stratospheric warming since the eruption of [Mount] Pinatubo” in 1991. They find that the aerosols that resulted from the wildfires significantly warmed the lower stratosphere, increased ozone loss and strengthened the springtime polar vortex. Together, the authors write, these “contributed to the prolonged ozone hole that was observed in 2020”, and such events may become more common as wildfires continue to increase under climate change.
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